Restaurant economics are unforgiving at the best of times. This winter adds a specific pressure that falls harder on some cooking than others.
The energy picture
Dutch TTF futures, Europe’s main gas benchmark, have climbed roughly 120% since the start of 2026, reaching about €63.7/MWh in mid-August.
Winter forecasts are moving toward an average near €60/MWh for Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, from €45/MWh currently, with some analysis suggesting over €100/MWh may be needed to divert flexible US LNG from Asia. Storage is depleted, and drought and heat are curbing hydro and nuclear output.
Why kitchens are exposed
A commercial kitchen runs gas burners, ovens, extraction, refrigeration and dishwashing simultaneously for the whole service period. Refrigeration runs continuously.
Food costs have their own pressure alongside it. Olive oil that retailed at €15 in 2020 costs €40 today, despite Greek prices falling 12.09% between January and March 2026 — the fall is real, and it is a fall from a much higher level.
A weekly grocery basket for two in Greece runs €40 to €70 excluding fish and olive oil; lunch for two in a mid-range taverna runs €35 to €60.
Where Greek cooking has an advantage
Traditional Greek cuisine contains more energy flexibility than most European restaurant traditions, because a large part of it is not cooked to order.
Ladera — vegetables slow-cooked in olive oil — are made in batches and served at room temperature. That is one oven session for many covers, and no line cooking.
Mezze and salads require assembly rather than cooking.
Dips and spreads are prepared ahead.
Compare that with a menu built around individually grilled or fried dishes, where every cover requires active heat.
Where the savings are, without changing the food
Batch the oven. One long session for several dishes rather than repeated heat-up cycles.
Review refrigeration. Door seals, condenser cleaning and thermostat settings are unglamorous and they run 24 hours a day.
Match extraction to service. Extraction running at full rate through quiet periods is a common and invisible cost.
Separate cooking oil from finishing oil. High heat destroys the polyphenols and aroma you pay for in premium extra virgin. Keep the €40 bottle for raw applications and use standard oil in the pan — better cooking and lower cost simultaneously.
The dishes that suffer least in an expensive winter are the ones Greek cooking already does well. That is a genuine advantage, not a consolation.
Sources
- Euronews — Europe’s gas prices have doubled
- Procurement Resource — Olive Oil Price Trend 2026
- Food Prices in Greece 2026